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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.54 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model