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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.82 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model