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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(10:58) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to JAX 4 for 6 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.37 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model