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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model