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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to CIN 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -2.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model