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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.26 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP