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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 42

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(:59) 10-B.Robbins punts 33 yards to JAX 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-P.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 9.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.65 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model