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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.49 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP