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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -9.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

KC
64.7%
LV
35.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.130 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.150 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LV defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • KC defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 25
–
LV 19
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

KC

Mecole Hardman WR Out Thumb
Jerick McKinnon RB Out Groin
Kadarius Toney WR Out Ankle

LV

Maxx Crosby DE Doubtful Knee
Roderic Teamer S Questionable Hamstring
Marcus Epps S Questionable Neck
Kolton Miller T Questionable Shoulder
Robert Spillane LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 31
–
LV 17

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:38 TD LV (9:38) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – LV 6
  • Q2 12:51 TD LV (12:51) 8-J.Jacobs left end for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – LV 13
  • Q2 06:44 TD KC (6:44) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LV 14
  • Q2 00:30 TD KC (:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-84-Ju.Watson, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 13 – LV 14
  • Q3 09:18 TD KC (9:18) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – LV 14
  • Q3 02:13 FG LV (2:13) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 21 – LV 17
  • Q4 13:48 TD KC (13:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – LV 17
  • Q4 03:14 FG KC (3:14) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 31 – LV 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LV 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-D.Carter. Penalty on LV-34-B.Bolden, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 96%

    (:35) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:35) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-D.Carter to LV 23 for 13 yards (27-C.Conner).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:49) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to KC 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-R.James to KC 21 for 10 yards (51-M.Koonce).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:51) 6-A.Cole punts 29 yards to KC 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:22) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to LV 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (2:13) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

    (9:42) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to KC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:34) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 17 for -2 yards (23-D.Tranquill, 95-C.Jones).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (3:14) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.