Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

(6:22) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to LV 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model