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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 12

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(:35) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.20 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP