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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 16

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.36 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model