Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(13:35) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-D.Carter to LV 23 for 13 yards (27-C.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.97 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model