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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to KC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.59 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model