Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(3:49) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to KC 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-R.James to KC 21 for 10 yards (51-M.Koonce).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model