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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model