Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

(7:51) 6-A.Cole punts 29 yards to KC 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model