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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 17 for -2 yards (23-D.Tranquill, 95-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.78 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model