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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ATL
51.8%
ARI
48.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to ATL: Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.087 vs Taylor Heinicke (ATL) -0.045 EPA/dropback (ARI starting Kyler Murray in place of Clayton Tune)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
ARI 21
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ATL

Dee Alford CB Out Ankle
Mack Hollins WR Out Ankle
David Onyemata DT Questionable Ankle

ARI

Trystan Colon C Out Calf
Emari Demercado RB Out Toe
D.J. Humphries T Questionable Ankle
Ezekiel Turner LB Questionable Hamstring
James Conner RB Questionable Knee
Will Hernandez G Questionable Knee
Carter O'Donnell T Questionable Ankle
Geoff Swaim TE Questionable Back
Michael Wilson WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 23
–
ARI 25

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:53 FG ARI (4:53) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ATL 0 – ARI 3
  • Q2 13:33 TD ATL (13:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 16-S.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – ARI 3
  • Q2 10:37 FG ARI (10:37) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ATL 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 04:12 TD ATL (4:12) 7-B.Robinson up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – ARI 6
  • Q2 00:14 TD ARI (:14) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 14 – ARI 12
  • Q3 09:21 FG ARI (9:21) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ATL 14 – ARI 15
  • Q3 05:23 FG ATL (5:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 17 – ARI 15
  • Q3 00:21 TD ARI (:21) New QB 15-C.Tune. 15-C.Tune up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-75-K.Street, Defensive Offside, declined. ATL 17 – ARI 21
  • Q4 02:39 TD ATL (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – ARI 22
  • Q4 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ATL 23 – ARI 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to ATL 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 7-B.Robinson to ATL 38 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:04) New QB 15-C.Tune. 6-J.Conner right end to ARI 34 for 4 yards (3-J.Bates).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 84%

    (10:37) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to ARI 34, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-44-O.Pappoe, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 34.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 18 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 65%

    (9:21) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to ARI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 25 for 7 yards (40-K.Smith).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (5:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:25) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to ATL 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 16 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:27) 13-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to ARI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-G.Dortch to ATL 21 for 49 yards (37-D.Hellams, 40-K.Smith).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:20) 9-D.Ridder up the middle to ATL 46 for 2 yards (7-K.White).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 92%

    (8:01) 9-D.Ridder up the middle to ARI 21 for no gain (93-J.Ledbetter).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 20 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:50) 12-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to ATL 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-S.Miller.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) 5-M.Prater 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.