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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:04) New QB 15-C.Tune. 6-J.Conner right end to ARI 34 for 4 yards (3-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model