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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 12 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.72 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model