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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 22 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 12-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to ATL 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-S.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model