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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Arizona Cardinals 22

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 9-D.Ridder up the middle to ATL 46 for 2 yards (7-K.White).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.19 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model