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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 21
Atlanta Falcons 17 – Arizona Cardinals 22
What Actually Happened
(8:01) 9-D.Ridder up the middle to ARI 21 for no gain (93-J.Ledbetter).
The Three Options
GO
+2.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.49 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
KICK
+1.56 EP
- 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
