Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to ARI 34, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-44-O.Pappoe, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model