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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.48 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP