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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 28

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model