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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 17

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Arizona Cardinals 15

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 6-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model