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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -9.5 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

SF
63.4%
CLE
36.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Phillip Walker (CLE) -0.188 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.382 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Phillip Walker in place of Dorian Thompson-Robinson)
  • SF offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.199 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CLE on 7 more days rest than SF
  • SF defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 21
–
CLE 18
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

SF

Dre Greenlaw LB Questionable Hamstring
Elijah Mitchell RB Questionable Knee

CLE

Joel Bitonio G Out Knee
Cedric Tillman WR Out Hip
Deshaun Watson QB Out right Shoulder
David Njoku TE Questionable Hand
Ethan Pocic C Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 17
–
CLE 19

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:23 TD SF (12:23) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 07:57 FG SF (7:57) 4-J.Moody 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – CLE 0
  • Q2 05:43 TD CLE (5:43) Direct snap to 88-H.Bryant. 27-K.Hunt left tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – CLE 6
  • Q3 11:13 FG CLE (11:13) 7-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. SF 10 – CLE 10
  • Q3 03:03 FG CLE (3:03) 7-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. SF 10 – CLE 13
  • Q4 11:04 TD SF (11:04) 24-J.Mason left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – CLE 13
  • Q4 03:26 FG CLE (3:26) 7-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. SF 17 – CLE 16
  • Q4 01:43 FG CLE (1:43) 7-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. SF 17 – CLE 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 20 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 60%

    (6:55) 4-J.Moody 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

    (3:55) 7-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:18) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-J.Darden to CLE 19 for 11 yards (59-C.Robinson). PENALTY on SF-20-A.Thomas, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 19.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 20%

    (14:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 3-R.McCloud to SF 17 for no gain (20-P.Strong).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (7:57) 4-J.Moody 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 69 yards to SF 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE. PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at SF 9.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 85%

    (11:13) 7-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 81%

    (3:03) 7-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (15:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-J.Darden pushed ob at CLE 34 for 11 yards (89-C.Woerner).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:27) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to SF 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 3-R.McCloud to SF 18 for 13 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 26-R.McLeod).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:25) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to CLE 38, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-J.Darden. PENALTY on CLE-23-M.Emerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 38.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 49%

    (6:52) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short right to 18-Dav.Bell to SF 34 for 6 yards (7-C.Ward).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-J.Darden to CLE 26 for 10 yards (38-S.Jean-Charles).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (1:43) 7-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.