Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(13:27) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to SF 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 3-R.McCloud to SF 18 for 13 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 26-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.03 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model