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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 24

Cleveland Browns 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 7-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model