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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 10 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 7-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model