Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to CLE 38, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-J.Darden. PENALTY on CLE-23-M.Emerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.16 EP
63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 82, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model