Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Cleveland Browns 16

(3:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-J.Darden to CLE 26 for 10 yards (38-S.Jean-Charles).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model