Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 69 yards to SF 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE. PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at SF 9.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.65 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model