4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 7-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.68 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.58 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model