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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 36

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 4-J.Moody 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.72 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model