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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-J.Darden pushed ob at CLE 34 for 11 yards (89-C.Woerner).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model