DET @ TB — 4th & Data

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-2 HC Todd Bowles

Sunday 2023-10-15 · 16:25 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DET

57.0%

43.0%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

DET offense: +0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
QB edge to DET: Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.000 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.245 EPA/dropback
TB on 7 more days rest than DET
DET defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
TB defense: -0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
TB offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DET 23 16–30

–

TB 21 14–28

Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

DET

Brian Branch S Out Ankle

Jahmyr Gibbs RB Out Hamstring

Jonah Jackson G Out Ankle

Zonovan Knight RB Out Shoulder

James Mitchell TE Out Hamstring

Emmanuel Moseley CB Out Knee

Josh Paschal DE Out Knee

Khalil Dorsey CB Questionable Illness

Sam LaPorta TE Questionable Calf

TB

Anthony Nelson LB Doubtful Concussion

Shaquil Barrett LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 20

–

TB 6

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:13 FG DET (8:13) 36-R.Patterson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – TB 0
Q2 07:38 FG TB (7:38) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. DET 3 – TB 3
Q2 02:49 TD DET (2:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – TB 3
Q3 07:48 FG TB (7:48) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. DET 10 – TB 6
Q3 03:27 TD DET (3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – TB 6
Q4 12:04 FG DET (12:04) 36-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 20 – TB 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(13:08) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to DET 3, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-K.Raymond to DET 10 for 7 yards (32-J.Hayes).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 23%

(10:19) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to TB 8, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

(8:13) 36-R.Patterson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(5:24) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to DET 35, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DET-6-I.Melifonwu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 35.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 50

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP

p(convert) 72% p(FG) 25%

(1:43) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(13:32) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to DET 5, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 87

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP

p(convert) 66%

(12:05) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to TB 42, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 15

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

(7:38) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(1:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 DET 4th & 13 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 66%

(10:38) 36-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

(7:48) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(1:16) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to DET 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 29 for 11 yards (26-K.Merriweather).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

(12:04) 36-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP

p(convert) 61%

(10:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to DET 1, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-K.Raymond to DET 16 for 15 yards (52-K.Britt, 49-C.Gill).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 44 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 39%

(3:55) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to TB 2, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 76 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 32 for 8 yards (25-W.Harris, 21-T.Walker).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 29 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

(:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 88-C.Otton.
See the full breakdown →

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