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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 87

Detroit Lions 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to TB 42, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.48 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP