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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 51

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to TB 8, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.01 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model