Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Detroit Lions 17

(1:16) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to DET 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 29 for 11 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model