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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 50

Detroit Lions 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.75 EP