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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 34

Detroit Lions 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 36-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model