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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.60 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model