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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.13 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP