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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to DET 3, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-K.Raymond to DET 10 for 7 yards (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model