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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 12

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 36-R.Patterson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model