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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2023-10-08 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

NO
46.7%
NE
53.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Mac Jones (NE): -0.060 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NO 20
–
NE 21
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NO

Juwan Johnson TE Out Calf
Lonnie Johnson S Out Hamstring
Landon Young T Out Hip
Paulson Adebo CB Questionable Hamstring
Derek Carr QB Questionable right Shoulder
James Hurst G Questionable Ankle
Andrus Peat G Questionable Concussion

NE

Christian Gonzalez CB Questionable Shoulder
Matt Judon LB Questionable Elbow
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Trenton Brown T Questionable Chest
Cody Davis S Questionable Knee
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Foot
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Ankle
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Ankle
Riley Reiff T Questionable Knee
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Thigh
Cole Strange G Questionable Knee
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 34
–
NE 0

Prediction missed by 35 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:11 TD NO (7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 38-R.Stevenson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [96-C.Granderson] at NE 27. 32-T.Mathieu for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 14:27 TD NO (14:27) NO 4-Carr now at QB. 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – NE 0
  • Q2 10:53 TD NO (10:53) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – NE 0
  • Q3 11:40 FG NO (11:40) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 24 – NE 0
  • Q4 13:10 TD NO (13:10) NO 4-Carr now at QB. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 30 – NE 0
  • Q4 05:47 FG NO (5:47) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 34 – NE 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to NE 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (7:58) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 77%

    (3:45) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to NO 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NO 36.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to NO 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%

    (1:11) 39-L.Hedley punts 22 yards to NE 19, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Peppers MUFFS catch, touched at NE 18, ball out of bounds at NE 18.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 16 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 66%

    (11:40) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 53%

    (9:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 27 yards to NO 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (7:59) 39-L.Hedley punts 44 yards to NE 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 5-J.Peppers.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:51) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to NO 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 26 for 16 yards (21-A.Phillips). PENALTY on NO-1-A.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NO 10.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 21%

    (1:21) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to NE 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:44) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to NO 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:11) 39-L.Hedley punts 55 yards to NE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-42-T.Summers.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (7:22) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 33 for no gain (56-D.Davis).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 66%

    (5:47) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:16) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NO 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 29 for 12 yards (45-C.Board).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:26) 39-L.Hedley punts 50 yards to NE 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-J.Peppers to NE 27 for 6 yards (27-I.Yiadom). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 22.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 14-T.Montgomery.