Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 31 – New England Patriots 0

(9:11) 39-L.Hedley punts 55 yards to NE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-42-T.Summers.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.17 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model